Prognosti-Ranking the 2012 Playoffs: Part II
Continuing from Part I of this series, I’m going to prognosticate which teams will be the best in the playoffs. I started from the predicted worst first-round out, and I'm going to go all the way to the team I think will raise the Larry O’Brien this year. Thus, a prognosticated ranking. A... prognostirank! (I’m still bad at words.) For each team, I’ll do my interpretation of why they should be higher than they are, and why they should be lower than they are. Yesterday, I went over teams 16 to 11. On with part two of our preview, from the 10th best projected team to the 6th best -- in other words, the two best first round losers, and all but the best of our projected second round losers.
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WHY THEY'LL DO BETTER: Chris Paul is the greatest point guard in the game today, and Memphis really isn't that much better than they are. The Grizzlies have -- hilariously enough -- gone from "hideously underrated" going into last year's playoffs to incredibly overrated now. The difference between these two teams is minimal. The Grizzlies are a better defensive unit while the Clippers are a better offensive unit, and they play different styles. It remains to be seen if Blake Griffin and DeAndre Jordan can really cook at the Memphis pace, but it also remains to be seen if Zach Randolph can really come back and contribute to the Grizzlies' in any tangible form. If Chris Paul plays to his talent level, and Blake Griffin does enough to make life difficult on the Grizzlies' bigs? The Clippers will win this series, and could potentially win against the Spurs as well (a team they match up surprisingly well against, and a team that they would've led 2-1 in the season series if the Spurs hadn't won a miracle overtime game at Staples earlier this year.
WHY THEY WON'T: Although Paul always gives his team a chance, this Clippers team simply isn't very good. Blake Griffin is exactly the kind of big man Zach Randolph makes his bread defending, and the general makeup of this Clipper team is unremarkable. The Grizzlies are an extremely well built team, and in Tony Allen the Grizzlies have exactly the type of defender that can make Chris Paul's life hell. Given that, I see this series turning out more akin to the 2009 Hornets-Nuggets series. The Nuggets -- for that series only -- played smashmouth basketball and beat Paul up. Despite being (roughly) equally good teams, the Nuggets roughed up Paul and dealt that incarnation of the Hornets one of the worst series losses in the history of the franchise.
I see the Memphis style -- all grit, grind, and hustle -- causing the Clippers as many problems as those Nuggets caused the Hornets, and leading to a relatively easy six game victory for the Grizzlies. And on a tertiary note... the Clippers have the worst coach in the league. By a larger margin than you think. That hurts them, in a matchup with a coach that's had a fantastic two-year streak and makes excellent in-game adjustments. And in the end, it's the main reason I'm not even sure this series is going to be close. How does a Vinny Del Negro team make the defensive adjustments needed to shut down Gasol and Gay over a full series? How does Blake cover Randolph? I don't have a good answer to any of these questions. So, yeah. I think the Clippers lose it. In six games, in fact. Now, Chris Paul, feel free to make me look incredibly silly.
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